Preseason Rankings
Atlantic 10
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
28 Virginia Commonwealth 66.1%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 7 14 - 4 +12.3      +4.5 61 +7.7 17 70.0 145 0.0 1 0.0 1
52 Davidson 41.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 8 13 - 5 +9.7      +5.2 48 +4.4 58 63.4 319 0.0 1 0.0 1
60 Dayton 37.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 12 - 6 +8.8      +5.0 54 +3.8 74 63.5 317 0.0 1 0.0 1
86 Rhode Island 20.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 7 +6.2      +2.7 99 +3.5 82 69.5 157 0.0 1 0.0 1
105 Richmond 10.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 8 +4.1      +4.4 65 -0.4 175 65.3 275 0.0 1 0.0 1
115 St. Bonaventure 8.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 8 +3.5      -1.1 210 +4.6 56 63.2 321 0.0 1 0.0 1
126 Duquesne 6.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 +2.7      +2.5 103 +0.2 157 72.5 86 0.0 1 0.0 1
141 Saint Louis 3.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 9 - 9 +1.0      -2.8 258 +3.9 72 67.2 223 0.0 1 0.0 1
151 George Mason 3.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 8 - 10 +0.7      -0.1 180 +0.8 138 70.2 137 0.0 1 0.0 1
189 La Salle 1.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 7 - 11 -2.0      -1.8 230 -0.2 169 72.1 94 0.0 1 0.0 1
190 George Washington 1.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 11 -2.0      -2.5 252 +0.4 148 68.3 186 0.0 1 0.0 1
221 Saint Joseph's 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 12 -3.3      -1.4 221 -1.9 226 70.2 139 0.0 1 0.0 1
233 Fordham 0.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 6 - 12 -4.0      -5.0 310 +1.0 130 63.7 312 0.0 1 0.0 1
237 Massachusetts 0.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 20 5 - 13 -4.3      -2.0 240 -2.3 237 68.5 183 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Virginia Commonwealth 2.6 42.4 19.8 12.8 8.7 5.7 3.8 2.6 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Davidson 3.4 25.4 21.4 15.4 11.4 8.3 6.2 4.2 3.0 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1
Dayton 3.8 22.1 19.3 14.9 11.3 9.1 6.9 5.5 3.8 2.9 1.9 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1
Rhode Island 5.2 10.5 12.1 12.3 12.0 11.5 10.3 8.6 6.9 5.2 4.0 2.9 1.9 1.2 0.5
Richmond 6.3 5.8 7.7 9.7 10.4 11.1 10.8 10.0 8.6 7.8 6.3 5.0 3.4 2.4 1.1
St. Bonaventure 5.9 6.7 9.9 11.6 11.7 11.3 10.0 8.8 8.0 6.2 5.2 4.3 3.0 2.0 1.4
Duquesne 6.6 4.4 7.5 8.8 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.2 9.4 7.8 6.9 5.9 4.3 2.9 1.6
Saint Louis 7.5 2.5 4.6 6.6 7.7 9.3 9.6 10.0 10.2 9.4 8.7 7.3 6.1 4.8 3.0
George Mason 8.0 2.0 3.6 5.2 6.6 7.9 9.0 9.3 9.9 10.1 9.4 8.8 7.6 6.4 4.3
La Salle 9.1 1.0 2.0 3.3 4.7 6.0 6.9 7.9 9.0 10.2 10.9 10.4 10.1 9.5 8.0
George Washington 9.4 0.6 1.7 2.9 3.8 5.2 6.2 7.6 8.4 10.1 11.0 11.4 11.5 10.8 8.9
Saint Joseph's 10.5 0.3 0.9 1.4 2.1 3.1 4.1 5.4 6.8 8.1 10.2 12.3 14.0 15.9 15.3
Fordham 10.5 0.3 0.9 1.4 2.1 3.0 4.0 5.6 7.1 8.1 10.5 11.8 14.0 15.6 15.7
Massachusetts 10.7 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.0 2.7 3.7 5.0 6.4 8.2 9.8 12.4 14.0 16.5 17.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Virginia Commonwealth 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.8 3.1 4.9 7.2 9.9 12.4 14.4 15.1 14.2 10.3 4.8
Davidson 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.5 5.3 7.3 10.2 13.0 13.9 14.6 12.7 9.2 5.0 1.6
Dayton 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.9 4.4 6.3 9.0 10.7 12.6 13.1 13.3 11.3 7.8 4.1 1.4
Rhode Island 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.6 4.0 5.7 8.2 10.3 12.1 12.8 12.1 10.6 8.7 5.8 3.4 1.4 0.3
Richmond 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.2 6.3 8.8 10.6 11.8 12.4 12.0 10.1 7.9 5.6 3.2 1.7 0.5 0.1
St. Bonaventure 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.5 5.3 7.3 9.4 10.9 11.9 11.9 11.4 9.3 7.0 4.4 2.7 0.7 0.2
Duquesne 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.1 5.2 7.4 9.2 11.2 11.7 12.3 10.6 9.5 7.1 5.0 2.9 1.5 0.4 0.1
Saint Louis 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.0 4.9 6.8 9.2 11.2 12.2 12.0 11.0 9.4 7.4 5.1 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1
George Mason 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 2.4 4.1 6.6 8.6 10.0 11.7 12.5 11.0 9.7 8.5 5.8 4.1 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
La Salle 7 - 11 0.5 1.7 3.9 6.6 8.8 10.9 12.3 12.3 11.2 9.6 7.8 5.6 4.0 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
George Washington 7 - 11 0.7 2.2 4.9 7.5 9.8 11.8 12.7 12.2 11.0 8.9 7.0 4.8 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 6 - 12 1.7 4.6 8.2 11.4 12.6 13.3 12.3 10.8 8.6 6.3 4.3 2.5 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 6 - 12 1.4 4.8 8.0 11.2 12.9 13.2 12.5 10.8 8.7 6.6 4.0 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 5 - 13 1.9 5.0 8.9 11.8 13.5 13.5 12.4 10.6 7.9 5.6 3.7 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia Commonwealth 42.4% 30.9 9.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Davidson 25.4% 16.7 6.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Dayton 22.1% 14.0 6.2 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Rhode Island 10.5% 6.1 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
Richmond 5.8% 3.1 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Bonaventure 6.7% 3.3 2.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 4.4% 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Saint Louis 2.5% 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
George Mason 2.0% 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
La Salle 1.0% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
George Washington 0.6% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia Commonwealth 66.1% 33.1% 33.1% 11   2.8 4.1 4.4 5.5 5.1 4.7 5.4 5.2 6.7 7.4 9.7 4.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 33.9 49.4%
Davidson 41.9% 20.1% 21.8% 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.2 4.0 5.5 8.6 5.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 58.1 27.3%
Dayton 37.7% 17.1% 20.6% 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.8 3.8 4.9 8.8 5.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 62.3 24.8%
Rhode Island 20.5% 8.8% 11.7% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.5 2.3 2.9 5.1 3.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 79.5 12.8%
Richmond 10.5% 5.1% 5.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.8 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 89.5 5.7%
St. Bonaventure 8.5% 5.3% 3.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 2.1 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 91.5 3.4%
Duquesne 6.6% 3.7% 2.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.7 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 93.4 3.0%
Saint Louis 3.7% 2.3% 1.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 96.3 1.5%
George Mason 3.1% 1.9% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 96.9 1.3%
La Salle 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.9 0.3%
George Washington 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.0 0.3%
Saint Joseph's 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.4 0.2%
Fordham 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5 0.1%
Massachusetts 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Virginia Commonwealth 66.1% 6.7% 63.0% 38.9% 18.4% 8.1% 3.7% 1.6% 0.8%
Davidson 41.9% 6.9% 38.6% 20.5% 8.3% 3.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Dayton 37.7% 7.3% 34.2% 17.1% 6.4% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Rhode Island 20.5% 4.3% 18.1% 7.7% 2.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Richmond 10.5% 2.6% 9.0% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 8.5% 1.8% 7.5% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 6.6% 1.7% 5.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Louis 3.7% 0.8% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 3.1% 0.7% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 1.1% 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.0 28.0 46.5 21.2 4.0 0.4 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.9 0.0 35.5 46.1 16.0 2.2 0.1
2nd Round 70.0% 0.9 30.0 48.5 18.8 2.6 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 34.4% 0.4 65.6 30.6 3.7 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 14.8% 0.2 85.2 14.2 0.6 0.0
Final Four 6.3% 0.1 93.7 6.1 0.1
Final Game 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4 0.0
Champion 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1